Michael Kops: Hello, I’m Michael Kops, Vice President at Heartland Advisors. We're here with Andy Fleming, Portfolio Manager for the Heartland Value Plus Strategy.
Andy, you've been looking for green shoots in the market. Can you tell us what those are?
Andy Fleming: Sure, Mike. We are finding green shoots in companies where fundamentals are starting to improve after undergoing a period of self-help. Strong capital allocation policies combined with stabilizing sales often lead to increased margins and a positive outlook for the stock.
Mike: Was there good news on that front for the quarter?
Andy: There was. In September, the Federal Reserve began to cut short-term interest rates for the first time since the global pandemic. Optimism in anticipation of an easing cycle already helped lift the Russell 2000® Value Index over 10% in the third quarter.
Rate cuts could eventually lead to a modest demand push, augmenting the existing green shoots. Especially for companies tied to housing, which could rebound with falling rates.
Mike: Should investors count on a Fed-driven demand push?
Andy: We don't think so while it would be a positive sign if lower borrowing costs were to spark an uptick in demand, we know that we can't bank on that.
Mike: So, what are you banking on?
Andy: We're looking for companies with strong capital allocation policies who are actively engaged in self-help and aren't counting on improving demand. We believe these companies have a better chance of controlling their own destiny. We are much more comfortable banking on that. One example is Gates Industrial (GTES), which is a leading manufacturer of belts and hoses for vehicles and industrial machines.
Recently, Gates has gone through a series of internal improvements, including reducing its material costs, factory consolidation, and focusing on more profitable segments of its business. This has improved EBITDA margins to approximately 23% to 25%, up from less than 21% in 2023. And this is despite a decline in sales.
Mike: Are there other examples?
Andy: There are. During the quarter, we increased our weighting to another industrial company, Hayward Holdings (HAYW), which makes pool components such as pumps and filters.
New pool construction has been on a roller coaster ride. After peaking during the pandemic, construction activity has taken a plunge thanks to rising interest rates and fluctuating housing starts. Hayward's sales appear to be more resilient. Half of the company's sales come from the replacement of components in existing pools, and this revenue tends to be steady throughout a cycle.
Hayward's self-help efforts include consolidating manufacturing facilities and implementing Kaizen principles, which have added nearly 300 basis points to gross margins. When pool construction and remodeling pick back up, we believe Hayward's earning potential will be significantly higher due to its structurally improved margin profile.
Mike: In the third quarter, the Value Plus Strategy gained approximately 8%, trailing the Russell 2000® value index. What do you attribute the underperformance to?
Andy: Adverse stock selection, particularly in the Health Care, IT, and Energy sectors hurt performance. On the positive side, stock selection boosted results in Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials.
Mike: Did you see anything in the quarter that gave you a particular sense of confidence?
Andy: Yes. Companies that are actively taking steps to improve their financial strength, competitive advantage, and operational efficiency are starting to be rewarded in this market. By contrast, those simply waiting around for sales to improve remain under pressure.
Mike: That's a really interesting observation. Thank you for your time, Andy.